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I tested it with AI · Experiment #2
Do gas prices jump right before holidays? I checked 143 of them, and mostly they don't.
Everyone says gas stations raise prices right before a holiday, so you should fill up early. I tested it with weekly U.S. gas prices going back to 1990. Before Thanksgiving, prices fell in 23 of 35 years and rose in only 9.
Not a price forecast or financial advice. These are national weekly averages. Your local station can still move on any given day.
The short version
- Thanksgiving: prices fell in the 2 weeks before in 23 of 35 years and rose in only 9. The average change was -4.0¢.
- July 4th: fell in 22 of 36 years, rose in 12. Average -2.8¢.
- Labor Day: basically a coin flip, 15 up and 17 down.
- Memorial Day is the one that tends to rise (22 of 36 years, +3.4¢ on average), but that matches the normal spring price climb, not a holiday trick.
What I tested
I used the U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly average retail price for regular gas (the Monday survey), from August 1990 to October 19, 2026. I downloaded it from FRED, series GASREGW (original source: EIA).
For every Memorial Day, July 4th, Labor Day and Thanksgiving from 1991 on, 143 holidays in all, I compared the last weekly price before the holiday with the price 2 weeks earlier. A move of more than 0.5¢ counted as "up" or "down." To see whether the holiday itself mattered, I also compared each one with the average 2-week change in the 6 weeks on either side (the "same-season" average).
The results
| Holiday | Years | Rose | Fell | Flat | Avg change | Same-season avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memorial Day | 36 (1991-2026) | 22 | 11 | 3 | +3.4¢ | +1.5¢ |
| July 4th | 36 (1991-2026) | 12 | 22 | 2 | -2.8¢ | 0.0¢ |
| Labor Day | 36 (1991-2026) | 15 | 17 | 4 | -0.9¢ | -0.7¢ |
| Thanksgiving | 35 (1991-2025) | 9 | 23 | 3 | -4.0¢ | -3.1¢ |
| All 4 | 143 | 41% up | 51% down | -1.1¢ | ||
| Any 2-week window | All weeks | 45% up | 45% down | +0.3¢ |
Before the holidays, prices actually went down a bit more often than in a typical 2-week stretch. Since 2010, Thanksgiving rose in only 4 of 16 years, with an average change of -4.9¢.
Why Memorial Day looks different
Spring gas prices climb anyway, with the switch to summer-blend gas and the start of driving season. The weeks around Memorial Day rise about 1.5¢ on average too, so most of that bump is the season, not the holiday.
What I'd do for Thanksgiving 2026
There's no historical reason to rush to the pump early. I'd fill up when I need to and use a price app to find the cheapest station nearby. That beats trying to time it.
Caveats
- These are national weekly averages. Your local station can still move on any given day, and a Monday survey can't see same-day moves.
- Big market events (the 2005 hurricanes, 2008, 2020, 2022) swing individual years.
- Not a price forecast or financial advice.
Bottom line
"Gas jumps before holidays" is mostly a myth. July 4th and Thanksgiving fell more often than they rose, Labor Day is a coin flip, and Memorial Day's rise is the normal spring climb.
Data: U.S. EIA weekly U.S. regular all-formulations retail gasoline price, via FRED series GASREGW, Aug 1990 to Oct 19, 2026. Not a price forecast or financial advice.
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